Oil is trading like a meme stock. “In the absence of a coherent U.S. strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver,” UBS’s Paul Donovan said this morning. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk worries that the conflict will drag on for up to six more months, sending oil prices north of $130 per barrel. Some analysts think it could hit $200. LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist believes the oil market has “mirrored its 2022 behavior,” when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to an email seen by Fortune. “The threat of conflict in early 2022 pushed prices from roughly $65 in early December to a peak of $139 as the war unfolded.” MacQuarie analysts Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry told clients that oil will trade like a “meme stock” “until the fighting ends, perhaps at month end.”
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